Evidence
The research cards behind /v1/research/* and the Reddit signals behind /v1/social/* come from engines that have been publishing daily since March 2026. This is the audit of that record: every pick, first flag date, priced at that day's close, checked against 17 Jul 2026 — misses included. Quotes in the full write-up are verbatim from the reports produced on the date shown. Benchmark over the window: SPY +9.4%.
Long term — 19 catches, every one beat SPY over its own window
| Ticker | First flagged | Entry | 17 Jul | Return | SPY same window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PANW | 05 Mar | $163.16 | $353.99 | +117.0% | +10.2% |
| FCEL | 05 Mar | $8.08 | $17.26 | +113.6% | +10.2% |
| CRWD | 04 Mar | $101.92 | $203.76 | +99.9% | +9.6% |
| RPD | 19 Mar | $6.31 | $12.17 | +92.9% | +13.8% |
| FTNT | 08 Mar | $83.81 | $160.78 | +91.8% | +10.7% |
| TENB | 09 Mar | $21.02 | $39.77 | +89.2% | +10.7% |
| WOLF | 02 Apr | $17.47 | $31.18 | +78.5% | +14.5% |
| SHLS | 26 Mar | $6.47 | $10.54 | +62.8% | +16.4% |
| S | 09 Mar | $14.35 | $19.63 | +36.8% | +10.7% |
| ANET | 03 Mar | $124.60 | $168.56 | +35.3% | +10.3% |
| BE | 03 Mar | $153.02 | $206.73 | +35.1% | +10.3% |
| NVT | 14 Mar | $114.30 | $153.65 | +34.4% | +12.2% |
| NVO | 10 Mar | $38.72 | $51.48 | +33.0% | +10.9% |
| CARR | 14 Mar | $55.85 | $69.34 | +24.2% | +12.2% |
| GEV | 03 Mar | $842.00 | $1,036.22 | +23.1% | +10.3% |
| AVGO | 03 Mar | $313.84 | $374.45 | +19.3% | +10.3% |
| VRT | 04 Mar | $251.28 | $294.11 | +17.0% | +9.6% |
| LLY | 03 Mar | $1,007.73 | $1,169.17 | +16.0% | +10.3% |
| ETN | 03 Mar | $355.56 | $396.27 | +11.4% | +10.3% |
Short term — 24 catches ranked by 1-month return after the signal
| Ticker | Engine | Signal date | +1 week | +1 month | 17 Jul |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WOLF | Report | 02 Apr | +39.8% | +105.7% | +78.5% |
| USAR | Report | 07 Apr | +16.1% | +80.2% | +8.7% |
| TMRC | Report | 02 Apr | -5.5% | +58.7% | -2.6% |
| MRNA | 29 May | +0.5% | +47.7% | +33.8% | |
| SNOW | 27 May | +37.7% | +42.1% | +54.1% | |
| AMPG | 01 Jun | +27.6% | +37.9% | +24.7% | |
| BSET | 03 Jun | +4.9% | +37.5% | +52.1% | |
| GEO | 27 May | +4.1% | +34.0% | +30.7% | |
| NVT | Report | 08 Apr | +3.4% | +33.7% | +20.9% |
| RKLB | Report | 21 Mar | -15.6% | +31.6% | -1.0% |
| DELL | 28 May | +33.1% | +30.8% | +23.4% | |
| ZS | Report | 18 Apr | -0.5% | +29.6% | +8.6% |
| HOOD | 27 May | +8.7% | +29.5% | +39.1% | |
| COHR | Report | 03 May | +15.1% | +29.4% | -16.0% |
| TENB | Report | 19 Apr | +4.9% | +29.4% | +103.7% |
| JACK | 30 May | -14.1% | +23.1% | +20.5% | |
| RBLX | 02 Jun | -4.4% | +23.1% | +20.0% | |
| MU | 27 May | +16.3% | +22.0% | -8.1% | |
| ABBV | 02 Jun | +4.7% | +21.2% | +18.1% | |
| OKLO | Report | 21 Mar | -19.0% | +21.1% | -25.9% |
| AMAT | 04 Jun | +10.2% | +18.2% | +11.8% | |
| NBIS | 27 May | +20.8% | +15.3% | -17.6% | |
| IBKR | 27 May | +7.7% | +11.0% | +13.9% | |
| RDDT | 27 May | +9.9% | +8.3% | +20.2% |
The honest part
This is not a claim the system is right every time. Across every first-capture signal in the window: report-engine hit rate at 17 Jul prices is 43% positive, Reddit-engine hit rate is 31% positive. The edge comes from winner size (median winner +33%, several +90%+), not batting average. Named misses: the late-May speculative cohort — ASTS, LUNR, IREN, ONDS — drew down 45–70% in the June AI-infrastructure unwind. The engines caught the momentum up; they did not call the top.
The same engines feed Otto live today: /v1/research/hood-stocks (daily scored cards for the 32 Hood tickers), /v1/social/signals and /v1/social/hood-attention (Reddit alpha × live basis) — plus the MCP tools hood_stock_research and reddit_alpha_signals.
Method: first flag date per ticker (buy rating, discount tag, hidden-gem tag or score ≥ 80) from 94 report-days (5,020 ticker calls) and 2,182 Reddit signals, 02 Mar – 17 Jul 2026. Prices: Polygon.io split-adjusted closes. Not financial advice.